Paps, Billy, Danny and the '10 closer

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Sibby Sisti

Paps, Billy, Danny and the '10 closer

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09/11/09 9:32 PM

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The closing end of the bullpen looks pretty formidable and is acknowledged by many to be the best in the AL this year.

But looking forward to 2010 the picture is not so clear. Wagner had the Sox forego his 2010 club option in order to waive his NT. He has publicy stated that he wants a shot at 14 more saves to reach his milestone. With Papelbon the anointed closer for the last several years, Wagner has little chance of achieving this feat with Boston. So, it is assumed he will test the FA market and sign on with a team that will make him the closer. With his history, and 2009 performance showing no effects of past arm problems, he will most likely command a premium in the open market. Since the Sox protected themselves by retaining the ability to offer arbitration, they are in a position to garner two draft picks from the team signing Billy.

Daniel Bard has demonstrated closer abilities with his role since being called up and is being placed in more critical late game situations. One can conjecture that he is being eased into the setup/closer role and next year will take on more responsibility.

With Paps non commital on a long term contract at this point, and with the team looking forward, is it out of the realm of possibility that he could be trade bait in the off season?

Consider the Sox offering a two year contract to Wagner so that the closer role is filled and Billy gets his 14, with Bard gaining more experience to transition to closer upon Wagner's departure, and it could make Papelbon expendable. Think of the talent they could acquire in a trade for Paps.

Is this scenario far fetched, or what?.

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Plantier Forever

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09/11/09 11:15 PM

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I'll bite. This isn't crazy. But I still think the equation looks like this:

In 2010:

Bard (in 8) + Papelbon (in 9) - Wagner + picks (not sure if he'll be type A FA) > Bard (in 8) + Wagner (in 9) - Papelbon + whatever Papelbon fetches in trade

I'm not sure how much a closer fetches in trade. Plus Wagner as a full-time closer is a very shaky proposition at this point.

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FenwayTheHardWay

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09/11/09 11:20 PM

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I'd be much more inclined to just take the picks for Wagner. Would anyone be even talking about this if it wasn't for the ridiculous "closer" label/construct? I mean, I guess having him around makes it easier to deal Papelbon if you get a really ridiculous offer for him... but I doubt they go that route.

"Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez

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Jrou8809

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09/11/09 11:30 PM

Theo baked me a pie early on in his career and i ate it and enjoyed it a lot... No one is untouchable for the right price... So if someone blows the Sox away with i'd say a veteran power hitting LF or a good shortstop plus a couple of really good prospects I could see the sox biting... maybe even straight up for a young pitcher like a Matt Garza or James Shields type (a guy with a few years of major league experience with good numbers and high upside)

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FenwayTheHardWay

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09/11/09 11:31 PM

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What veteran power hitting LF or good shortstop are we going to get for Papelbon? Honest question.

"Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez

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Arquimedez Bozo

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09/11/09 11:44 PM

Chris Hatfield
Senior Editor & Columnist
SoxProspects.com

Seriously, the key thing here is that the Sox are unlikely to get what they'd want to trade Papelbon. OF COURSE they would trade him if he brought back greater value than they perceive him to have. However, as stated above, installing Wagner as your full-time closer when you have a better option already is just silly, especially when losing Wagner nets you picks.

There's no reason to overthink this in my opinion.

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DCRi

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09/11/09 11:48 PM

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I think the idea is realistic, but probably unlikely.

The Sox are reaching a major point of transition. In the next two years the Sox have to come up with two OFs, a 3B, at least one more premium starting pitcher, a SS and a DH.

Four position players, including three hitting positions, as well as a DH.

Right now the in-house candidates are Lowrie at SS or 3B, Kalish and Reddick. Given his history the Sox probably will not put themselves in a position of reliance on Lowrie next year. Kalish and Reddick probably will not be ready until 2011, or late in 2010. Meanwhile, a LF is needed next year.

My feeling is that the Sox are going to try to get an elite SP in the off-season and an elite hitter. To get both will take some top talent out of the farm system. Putting Papelbon into the mix changes the dyanmic and may permit the Sox to keep one or two top prospects, like a Kalish or Reddick.

A lot will depend on which teams become the best trading partners.

Last Edited By: DCRi 09/11/09 11:54 PM. Edited 1 time.

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buffs44444

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09/12/09 12:04 AM

Arquimedez Bozo wrote:
Seriously, the key thing here is that the Sox are unlikely to get what they'd want to trade Papelbon. OF COURSE they would trade him if he brought back greater value than they perceive him to have. However, as stated above, installing Wagner as your full-time closer when you have a better option already is just silly, especially when losing Wagner nets you picks.

There's no reason to overthink this in my opinion.

This pretty much sums up what I was thinking. They'll deal him in a big deal if it gets them the return they're looking for, but they're not just going to put Pap out there just for the sake of transitioning to Wagner/Bard. I think it could happen, but it will all depend on what they can get back for him.

And yes, there are teams that could jump......but I agree it's not worth racking brains at this point to postulate what-ifs that probably aren't going to happen. Another rainout or two, maybe. Can't stand these boring (baseball-wise) nights.....

Madness is like gravity....all you need is a little push.

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FenwayTheHardWay

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09/12/09 12:41 AM

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Arquimedez Bozo wrote:
There's no reason to overthink this in my opinion.

"Closer". "Saves". There's your reasons. They're not good ones, though.

Offer him arb and be done with it. You get the picks or you get a useful reliever on a one year deal. It's as simple as that.

"Jonathan Papelbon, not wasting any time, going to his bread and butter there, and that's the cheese."- Buck Martinez

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TWilliams4649

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09/12/09 12:56 AM

I will bring this back to the thread title and say this. Papelbon should be signed to a long term deal because he is the best closer the Red Sox have ever had and will be for the years to come. His numbers may make you cringe this year but there are the people who can pitch in Boston (Papelbon), and those who can't. He isn't an all star because the random people in "Red Sox Nation" vote for him, he is because he is an awesome closer.

Bard I believe will be the Ramiro Mendoza of the yankees in the years they won three straight titles. I believe he will improve on what he has developed this year. He has a 98-100mph fastball and he has been really focusing on locating it. He used to try and blow it by people (which worked early on this year) but he now is trying to locate it.

Wagner is clearly gone (IMO) and draft whatever you can for him. He would be a key part in us winning the World Series this year, but you can't pay for him when he is still only a year off of Tommy John.

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TheGoldenGreek33

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09/12/09 4:38 AM

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One thing to keep in mind about what Paps potential return value could net is, how many teams are an elite closer away from filling in a big whole on their team that could push them into the post-season or become a legit World Series threat?

Phillies
Rays
Tigers
Cubs
Marlins
Braves

Whether you want to admit it or not, Papelbon is of the elite (highest WAR of any closer from 06-09). He's 28 YO and hasn't allowed a run in 25 post-season IP. It's conceivable that a team could overpay for him. But, he doesn't even become a free agent until after 2011, so it's highly unlikely to think they'll go with a Wagner/Bard combo in 2010. The Sox gave up practically nothing for Wagner, who was a lights out closer pre-TJ and is auditioning for his contract next season. I think it was pretty clear that the Sox only traded for him as a rental, as they knew Wagner wants to close and won't be able to with the Sox now or next year unless Paps is traded. To conclude, it'd be in the Sox best interest to reap the benefits here. They have a quality reliever and will more than likely receive the two compensation picks in the off-season.

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adiospaydro2005

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09/12/09 5:31 AM

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I suspect that Papelbon will not be traded in offseason as there are too many holes to fill on this team which should be filled by creating another big hole in the bullpen. While Papelbon certainly has not been lights out in 2009, I would still consider him to be an elite closer. Let Wagner decline arbitration and get the two picks to re-stock the farm system which is likely going to be drained if the Red Sox acquire someone like King Felix and/or Prince Fielder. Bard also needs another year of seasoning. One more thing, check out Papelbon's post-season statistics.

Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	HLD	BLSV	ERA
2005	2	0	0	0	4.0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	--	0.00
2007	7	0	0	0	10.2	5	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	4	0	0	0.00
2008	7	0	0	0	10.1	3	0	0	0	2	13	1	0	3	0	1	0.00
Total	16	0	0	0	25.0	10	0	0	0	6	22	2	0	7	0	0	0.00

Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220

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bighead

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09/12/09 8:51 AM

An interesting scenario but it doesn't seem likely. First off I gotta think the return that the Sox would get on Papelbon would be disappointing to most. After the bullpen by committee year of 2003 I think most would agree that there is significant value in having a bullpen with fairly well defined roles and a pitcher who has the talent, health and mindset to pitch the 9th inning in a market like Boston. For all of the complaints about Papelbon (a lot of them valid IMO) he has delivered the goods in terms of results and done it at a very high level. That all being said to expect a young, power hitting OF and/or a young, good fielding, good hitting SS plus prospects of varying ceilings for a pitcher who averages about 65 innings, is nearing free agency AND has publicly declared that he intends "to set salary precedents for closers" seems unlikely to me. Young, legit power hitting OFs (a guy who can hit 30-40 HRs without calling Yankee Stadium his home park) and good fielding, good hitting SSs seem to be less common and more valuable commodities in the age of PED scrutiny. It has also been well documented that the value of young, cost controlled talent in general has skyrocketed in recent years. My guess is that any team willing to offer any package similar to that would have to be a team with a stocked farm system and the resources ($$$) to be able to afford a luxury like Papelbon. I just can't identify a team that fits that description.

I also would not feel 100% comfortable handing full time closer duties to Wagner given his injury history and age. I think trading for him was a great move and I love what he has done for the Sox so far but it does seem to be a risk to rely on him to fill that role at this point of his career. Bard has been very good this season in his role but I don't see him as ready to assume closer duties in a pinch if Wagner goes down and it remains to be seen if he is suitable for the role long term either.

I don't see the Sox signing Papelbon long term given his salary demands and health concerns about his shoulder (perceived of real). I think they ride him right up to free agency while trying to identify a replacement, offer him arbitration and potentially let him walk depending on his demands.

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Sibby Sisti

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09/12/09 10:32 AM

Without question, Paps is the best RS closer since the title was invented. But I'm looking at the Richard Seymour scenario where a player is moved in his prime to add a value to the team. True, the situations are not completely analagous when you consider the contracts, but a good GM is one who can anticipate potential future developments and seize the moment. I, too would not move Paps unless a player of equal or better value is returned.

Thirty five of thirty eight saves is still among the elite in the league. But cinco ocho has given my heart severe palpitations this season. There have been a few games where he has blown the opposition away as he has done in the past. Maybe he's saving his best for the playoffs. I just feel that Bard has the extra pitches in his arsenal to be an outstanding closer in a few years. And turning the role over to Wagner for a year or two wouldn't be that bad an idea.

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soxcentral

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09/12/09 10:40 AM

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I agree with your basic premise that we are in a sound position to trade Paps with Wagner and Bard (plus our other arms) in the pen. The relievers right now are a huge strength, and the best way to fill your holes is to deal from your strength. But for whatever you want to say about the value of a true closer, and whether it is vastly overrated, you only have to look to the NYY as a prime example of what an elite closer can do for a franchise. The blown games that often send teams into tailspins are regularly averted. Rivera in my opinion is possibly the most valuable player in Yankee history simply because he has been the rock that the franchise could evolve around for over a decade. We have a guy like that right now, and unless he demonstrates a severe regression between now and the end of 2011 it is huge gamble to move him.

And the Richard Seymour example kind of works against your point, doesn't it? He was traded for a future 1st round draft choice, exactly the return we'd get if we kept Paps and let Wagner walk (actually, we'd get more than that).

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Sibby Sisti

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09/12/09 10:50 AM

soxcentral wrote:
I agree with your basic premise that we are in a sound position to trade Paps with Wagner and Bard (plus our other arms) in the pen. The relievers right now are a huge strength, and the best way to fill your holes is to deal from your strength. But for whatever you want to say about the value of a true closer, and whether it is vastly overrated, you only have to look to the NYY as a prime example of what an elite closer can do for a franchise. The blown games that often send teams into tailspins are regularly averted. Rivera in my opinion is possibly the most valuable player in Yankee history simply because he has been the rock that the franchise could evolve around for over a decade. We have a guy like that right now, and unless he demonstrates a severe regression between now and the end of 2011 it is huge gamble to move him.

And the Richard Seymour example kind of works against your point, doesn't it? He was traded for a future 1st round draft choice, exactly the return we'd get if we kept Paps and let Wagner walk (actually, we'd get more than that).

But the first round choice for Seymour will be far more valuable than a baseball first rounder. Normally high first round NFL draft choices, and that is what Oakland's pick could be, move right in and start, whereas drafting a highly rated high schooler in baseball, means years of development. But my point was a narrow one: have the foresight to move a highly marketable player in his prime, thus obtaining maximum return, rather than wait until the player forces the issue in contract talks or diminished performance.

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adiospaydro2005

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09/12/09 11:23 AM

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I'm sure that many of you remember the closer by committee debacle that the Red Sox had in 2003. There is no need to trade Papelbon this offseason as Bard isn't ready and I don't think that Theo is going to rely on a 39 year old closer coming off TJ surgery such as Wagner. Besides I am not sure you would get the elite outfielder (i.e. Jason Heyward) and other parts for Pabelbon even though he has two years until free agency in 2012. I'd rather see the Red Sox hold on to him and either get the two draft picks in 2012 or trade him at the 2011 trading deadline if the Red Sox are out of contention which is where you might get a team like the Braves or Cubs to overpay for Papelbon for a chance to win the World Series.

Poorest spending of $3 million that I have ever seen.-fcastig 0220

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jdb

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09/12/09 11:39 AM

I think we are getting ahead of are selves a little bit here, but only by an off season. Im not too keen on the idea of losing an elite closer and replacing him with Bard/Wagner but it depends on what Paps would bring back. After another year of seasoning and pitching in higher pressure situations I could see Bard as the guy to step up in 2011 but that all depends on how he progresses. Paps will not be here once he hits the market and I think Theo and company know that. I think it will come down to what he values more in 2011. Paps + 2 picks in June of 2012 or a top prospect or two that could step in and help.

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Yirmiyahu

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09/12/09 11:41 AM

In response to everyone who has mentioned how many men Papelbon has put on base this year, or how stressful he's been to watch... I just want to point out that his struggles appear to be behind him. If you split his season in half, it looks like this:

first three months (Apr-Jun):
.327 OBP against, .685 OPS against, 34 IP's in 34 Games, 1-1 (W-L), 19 saves in 21 chances, 2-of-5 inherited runners scored, 34/17 SO/BB, 8 SB with 0 CS.

last three months (Jul-Sep):
.266 OBP against, .549 OPS against, 27 IP's in 25 Games, 0-0 (W-L), 16 saves in 17 chances, 2-of-11 inherited runners scored, 34/7 SO/BB, 2 SB with 1 CS.

Those latter stats look like the Papelbon of 2006-2008.

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Pantera

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09/12/09 11:54 AM

No matter your replacement options, it seems right to trade Papbelbon if the return would far exceed any reasonable expectation of Papelbons value over the next two years plus the value of the two draft picks that he would bring in 2011. One possibility is Seattle, who could then either trade David Aardsma or Papebelbon himself to a third team. Papelbon could possibly be included in a package to obtain Felix Hernandez.

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MaleNurse2010

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09/12/09 11:59 AM

I'm all for trading Paps. The Cubs have no problem trading their future to make their fans believe they're WS contenders next year. A trade centered around Samardzija and Vitters is not out of the question. Wagner is over shits creek in terms of getting a good contract except from the Red Sox next season. Obviously it would be a step down from Paps to Wagner, but will Paps be worth 5 million dollars or greater, than Wagner next season? Which return will be better, the two draft picks when Wagner signs, or the prospects Paps will bring in; imho it's the Papelbon bounty. Both guys have the same number of issues in their injury histories, Paps humerous came out of the socket, Wagner needed a new elbow ligament after throwing 2000 sliders during his career, neither are guarantees going forward. Hopefully the money differential from Paps to Wagner, plus 10 mil saved in not having any rehab projects will equal one Lackey next season.

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Paps, Billy, Danny and the '10 closer

Paps, Billy, Danny and the '10 closer