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Type A Free Agents (the pre-Draft Compensation Thread)

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WC Sox Fan

#21

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09/04/09 2:34 AM

For the bargain bin shoppers, here are a few intriguing non-type A free agents for consideration:

Miguel Tejada
Hideki Matsui
Xavier Nady
Troy Glaus
Garret Anderson
Rick Ankiel
Erik Bedard
Justin Duchscherer
Kelvim Escobar
Ben Sheets

Several intriguing, coming off of major injury, players to consider.
(according to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ + Sheets who is rehabbing in texas)

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bighead

#22

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09/04/09 6:15 AM

SoxSail wrote:

bighead wrote:
I really hope that the Sox aren't going after Holliday. Sure he can play a better LF but is that worth all of the extra $$ and years that Boras will be demanding? I don't think he did much in terms of dispelling the home/away splits he had during his Colorado years.

It's not really the Boras factor as much as it is the MFY factor. At 4+ years, I'd rather have Holliday, even at a 15% steeper price, both because he is younger, and because his skill set ages well. However, the years and % might climb drastically if the Yanks decide they perfer Holliday over Bay.

The lack of development for Lars and Carter, as well as the inconsistency from Ortiz might make a Bay signing more likely/easy to digest. While at one point it looked like we might have a glut of DH's if we kept Bay, it now looks like that spot will open up after next year (or earlier if they blow off Ortiz or he sucks). This would coincide well with the ETA of some of our top OF prospects (Reddick, Kalish, Bates? Place? Lars? Daeges?). It means that the Sox can sign him, while maintaining flexibility, something they value highly.

P.S. BigHead, have you seen his numbers since he was traded???

His numbers since he was traded raises more questions for me. He left a weaker line up in Oakland to bat behind Pujols in St. Louis but he also left the AL for the NL. What sparked his production? Change of team or change of league or (most likely) both? Knowing Boras he is going to want more than 4 years (I'd guess he'd shoot for 7-8) and he'll want Holliday to be paid like a difference maker (18-20 million per). He just doesn't seem like that kind of a difference maker to me. Bay may be streaky but he has proven he can play in this environment (even though you can blame his midseason disappearance on his contract talks). Bay negotiations are a different story all together. Gammons claimed that his agent asked for a "Texieria type" contract when he spoke to the front office during the all star break. As you cited earlier, Bay doesn't seem to be the type of player to age well and getting tied up for big money and a lot of years would not be ideal. My guess is the Yanks play up their interest in both guys and then resign Damon to a 1 year deal while they wait for Austin Jackson. Damon's swing is perfect for Coors East and he'd settle for a 1 year deal at this stage.

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nheck

#23

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09/04/09 10:54 AM

WC Sox Fan wrote:
For the bargain bin shoppers, here are a few intriguing non-type A free agents for consideration:

Miguel Tejada
Hideki Matsui
Xavier Nady
Troy Glaus
Garret Anderson
Rick Ankiel
Erik Bedard
Justin Duchscherer
Kelvim Escobar
Ben Sheets

Several intriguing, coming off of major injury, players to consider.
(according to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ + Sheets who is rehabbing in texas)

Those two are the most likely candidates for the "2010 Shoulder Strengthening Program Sign". I'm betting on Bedard.

I once lost a bet on who would have the highest season SLG% because of a scorer. The guy I had a bet with had a clear error ruled a double in the last game of the season and it was the margin of victory.
It was amateur baseball and normally not something you would remember but in this case, the bet was who was going to ask a hot chick named Brin out after she lost her loser boyfriend. The other guy won, she broke up with her bf and he took her out. A year later they got married. Did I mention that she was hot, very hot ? Oh yeah, the official scorer was the other guys mother. I hate official scorers. - LCBF

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jdb

#24

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09/04/09 11:01 AM

I dont think we will resign Bay or sign a big time position player. I look for us to go after pitching on the FA market. Lackey would be a good option as a 3rd starter and Theo will surely monitor guys like Tim Hudson and Brandon Webb. Both have big options this off season on teams that might not be able to afford the risk. I think Felix will get either locked up or another team will out bid us with the prospects if he gets traded.

Going back to LF I think we see a stop gap solution with a Dye or Dunn type. Dunn would be an option to stick around and DH going forward after next season. Alot can happen and I think you might could see a deal for an elite bat and that might make it easier to sell us fans on a rookie playing LF if that happens.

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WillyCoPapi3

#25

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09/04/09 2:14 PM

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edwardcc, if the Sox were to sign Figgins then it'd be to play 3B since Mike Lowell is no longer a 3rd baseman. I really don't see the Red Sox going into next season with both Ortiz and Lowell, so while I'm not advocating the signing of Figgins there's at least a decent chance the Sox have some interest in him this offseason.

bighead wrote:
His numbers since he was traded raises more questions for me. He left a weaker line up in Oakland to bat behind Pujols in St. Louis but he also left the AL for the NL. What sparked his production? Change of team or change of league or (most likely) both?

While it's still uncertain who the "real" Matt Holliday is, the dramatic increase in production probably has more to do with him getting out of Oakland. That ballpark is where hitters go to die, and it's as much an extreme as Coors Field--only on the other end of the spectrum.

Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher.
-FenwayTheHardWay

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edwardcc

#26

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09/04/09 3:13 PM

WillyCoPapi3 wrote:
edwardcc, if the Sox were to sign Figgins then it'd be to play 3B since Mike Lowell is no longer a 3rd baseman. I really don't see the Red Sox going into next season with both Ortiz and Lowell, so while I'm not advocating the signing of Figgins there's at least a decent chance the Sox have some interest in him this offseason.

bighead wrote:
His numbers since he was traded raises more questions for me. He left a weaker line up in Oakland to bat behind Pujols in St. Louis but he also left the AL for the NL. What sparked his production? Change of team or change of league or (most likely) both?
While it's still uncertain who the "real" Matt Holliday is, the dramatic increase in production probably has more to do with him getting out of Oakland. That ballpark is where hitters go to die, and it's as much an extreme as Coors Field--only on the other end of the spectrum.

I don't disagree with either of those two statements WCP1. We would certainly need some roster movement to effectively fit Figgins in. I think the Sox would rather have a little more "pop" from 3rd base than Figgins would produce, but he is a pretty good top of the lineup type guy. If we were to matchup Figgins and Ellsbury that is like 100 SB a year right there, but probably only 15 HR between them. I am not convinced that Ellsbury has reached his power potential. I think Ellsbury may have a couple 20+ homer seasons in him like in his late 20s or early 30s.

I think Figgins is more likely a piggyback signing of a bigger need (like if they signed Holliday and/or Lackey) then it wouldn't cost the first round pick for Figgins.

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bighead

#27

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09/04/09 3:30 PM

WillyCoPapi3 wrote:
edwardcc, if the Sox were to sign Figgins then it'd be to play 3B since Mike Lowell is no longer a 3rd baseman. I really don't see the Red Sox going into next season with both Ortiz and Lowell, so while I'm not advocating the signing of Figgins there's at least a decent chance the Sox have some interest in him this offseason.

bighead wrote:
His numbers since he was traded raises more questions for me. He left a weaker line up in Oakland to bat behind Pujols in St. Louis but he also left the AL for the NL. What sparked his production? Change of team or change of league or (most likely) both?
While it's still uncertain who the "real" Matt Holliday is, the dramatic increase in production probably has more to do with him getting out of Oakland. That ballpark is where hitters go to die, and it's as much an extreme as Coors Field--only on the other end of the spectrum.

That thought had crossed my mind too but the stadium dimensions in Oakland and St. Louis are basically the same. Busch 3: Left Field - 336 feet (102 m) Left Center Field - 375 feet (114 m) Center Field - 400 feet (122 m) Right Center Field - 375 feet (114 m) Right Field - 335 feet (102 m) Alameda: Left Field - 330 feet (101 m) Left-Center - 367 feet (112 m) Center Field - 400 feet (122 m) Right-Center - 367 feet (112 m) Right Field - 330 feet (101 m)

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raftsox

#28

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09/04/09 3:38 PM

Park Effects Outfield dimensions are only a small part of the overall equation. Oakland has massive foul ground territory and is on the sea coast whereas Busch has a normal foul ground area and is about as inland as you can get.

I am speechless. ...this site is not intended to be a place where you post every ridiculous and half-formed thought that comes into your head. ... You should post less. - AMarshal2

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MaleNurse2010

#29

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09/05/09 3:33 AM

The reporters who don't suck like Rosenthol and Stark seem to think Bay is going to get upwards of 60 million, I presume that would be over 4 years. The Red Sox would be making a way smarter investment giving Holliday 5 years 90 million; even when he was at his Oakland offensive output levels. Adrian Beltre wouldn't be a bad idea either, I'll take great defense at third with a slightly below average bat even though it means dealing with Boras multiple times this offseason. The FO is obviously going to have to deal with the Papi problem, he will wind up in Oakland or someplace highly subsidized by the Red Sox or released alltogether.

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WillyCoPapi3

#30

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09/05/09 10:58 AM

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I guarantee you Papi won't be released. The Red Sox have too much respect for him and everything he's brought to the organization to do that to him.

As I've already said, though, I can't see the team going into next season with essentially two DHs in Papi AND Lowell. More than likely one gets moved (preferably Papi--not a fan of having a pure DH, especially one who no longer is an elite hitter--but I suspect it will end up being Lowell), and depending on who that is will largely dictate the Red Sox's plans for the offseason.

I don't see them going after a guy like Beltre unless he's willing to take a 2-year deal (or less, obviously).

Why would we ever PH for Varitek? I mean, what if we PH for him, and it goes to extras, and vic martinez gets eaten by dinosaurs? We'd have to use the emergency catcher.
-FenwayTheHardWay

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tdrowe

#31

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09/06/09 12:13 AM

raftsox wrote:
Park Effects Outfield dimensions are only a small part of the overall equation. Oakland has massive foul ground territory and is on the sea coast whereas Busch has a normal foul ground area and is about as inland as you can get.

He (Holliday) had a .877 OPS in the Coliseum this year in ~200 PA. Not much to go on, but he did significantly better in Oakland this year than on the road.

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Pantera

#32

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09/06/09 8:26 PM

I'm skeptical that the Yankees will want both Bay and Holliday. In fact they maybe more interested in Holliday because he can play RF.

-The Yankees have Swisher under contract next year for big money, he's not really a RF so he's going to have to play LF.

-They have Jorge Posada at catcher for two more years. He may not be able to play catcher and may have to DH.

-They also have Montero comming up who likely can't catch and can't play 1B because of Tex, they may have to have him DH.

If they sign Bay they maybe very quickly looking at having four DHs. American League rules require that they just have one.

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Arthur Spooner

#33

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09/06/09 8:38 PM

On Holliday:
I can't find any numbers to back this up, but I remember Holliday starting to take off a couple weeks before he even went to the Cards. So I doubt going back to the NL was why he broke out, I think he just "clicked".

Edit:
Yeah, his OPS went from .785 July 10th to .831 July 23rd(last day as an A), thats +.046 points of OPS in 13 days. He broke out before he even got traded.

Date	Opponent	Score	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jul 31	HOU	W 4-3	4	1	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	.309	.400	.488	.888
Jul 30	LAD	L 3-5	3	1	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	.302	.395	.480	.875
Jul 29	LAD	W 3-2	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.299	.392	.470	.862
Jul 28	LAD	W 10-0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.298	.390	.471	.861
Jul 27	LAD	W 6-1	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.297	.388	.472	.860
Jul 26	@ PHI	L 2-9	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	.297	.386	.471	.857
Jul 25	@ PHI	L 6-14	4	1	2	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	.296	.385	.468	.853
Jul 24	@ PHI	W 8-1	5	1	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	.293	.383	.462	.844
Jul 23	@ NYY	L 3-6	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.286	.378	.454	.831
Jul 22	MIN	W 16-1	3	3	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.287	.379	.453	.832
Jul 21	MIN	L 2-3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.280	.372	.448	.821
Jul 20	MIN	W 14-13	5	4	4	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	.284	.376	.454	.830
Jul 19	LAA	L 0-1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.276	.371	.424	.795
Jul 18	LAA	L 6-11	4	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	.279	.375	.429	.804
Jul 17	LAA	W 7-3	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.276	.372	.425	.797
Jul 16	LAA	L 2-6	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	.277	.371	.428	.799
Jul 12	@ TAM	W 7-3	5	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.276	.373	.419	.792
Jul 11	@ TAM	W 7-2	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.274	.372	.416	.788
Jul 10	@ TAM	L 0-6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.272	.372	.413	.785

Last Edited By: Arthur Spooner 09/06/09 8:58 PM. Edited 1 time.

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SoxSail

#34

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09/07/09 1:07 AM

bighead wrote:
I really hope that the Sox aren't going after Holliday. Sure he can play a better LF but is that worth all of the extra $$ and years that Boras will be demanding? I don't think he did much in terms of dispelling the home/away splits he had during his Colorado years.

Knowing Boras he is going to want more than 4 years (I'd guess he'd shoot for 7-8) and he'll want Holliday to be paid like a difference maker (18-20 million per). He just doesn't seem like that kind of a difference maker to me. Bay may be streaky but he has proven he can play in this environment (even though you can blame his midseason disappearance on his contract talks). Bay negotiations are a different story all together. Gammons claimed that his agent asked for a "Texieria type" contract when he spoke to the front office during the all star break. As you cited earlier, Bay doesn't seem to be the type of player to age well and getting tied up for big money and a lot of years would not be ideal.

So now you don't want Bay or Holliday?

Why didn't you say so in the first place? That's a horse of a different color.

Actually though, I think that when the Yanks don't sign one of them (or either) then the Sox may be able to get one of them at actual value/years, rather than Yankee market rate. If that doesn't work, then you're right, Teixeira money is too much for either of them...by far. With Lackey on the market, the Sox may very well try to pull a MFY and sign a bunch of type-A guys, limiting the value of picks they give up (as edwardCC says.)

Pantera Wrote:
I'm skeptical that the Yankees will want both Bay and Holliday. In fact they maybe more interested in Holliday because he can play RF.
-The Yankees have Swisher under contract next year for big money, he's not really a RF so he's going to have to play LF.

I don't think anyone said they wanted both, just that they would look at both, or fake looking at both. Just like you and I with cars, they will shop around for best price per value unit. Also, Swisher used to play CF, so what makes him a bad RF (that is your argument right) other than his arm? If your argument is, Bay/Holliday is slower than Swisher, and Yankee Stadium has a bigger LF, so move Swisher there, then I buy it.

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Pantera

#35

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09/07/09 1:55 AM

Swisher used to play CF, so what makes him a bad RF (that is your argument right

From watching him he didn't look very impressive in RF. Slow to get to balls and poor throwing arm.

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jdb

#36

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09/09/09 1:42 PM

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/28217/mlb-analyst-steve-phillip

Here are a few questions with Phillips today about the Sox and LF going forward. Please consider the source.

Hey Steve, how do you think the Matt Holliday situation will turn out after this season? Do you think he'll take one of the big offers he'll receive in free agency or do you think he'll stay in St. Louis, possibly with a home town discount?

Steve Phillips

(1:26 PM)

I think it's gonna come down to the Red Sox and Cardinals for Holliday's services this season, and I believe the Red Sox will win. I think Holliday loves St. Louis, but he hasn't been there long enough to give the hometown discount. The Cardinals will have to pay Pujols a couple years from now, and that will be their priority. Holliday will miss St. Louis, but will love the Green Monster.

Dan (CT)

Does that mean no Jason Bay in Boston next season?

Steve Phillips

(1:30 PM)

Right. I think negotiations have broken off between Bay and the Red Sox, and my sense is that his streakiness has caused the Sox to pull back and reconsider where to invest their money going forward. Holliday interested the Red Sox last year and at the deadline this season, but he'll have a bullseye on his back with a blue and red "B" come November.

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bighead

#37

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09/11/09 1:07 PM

From Buster Olney's latest:

We don't know how Holliday's mediocre three-month stint with Oakland factors into how AL teams view him. On one hand, the lack of depth in the Oakland lineup undoubtedly hurt Holliday, but on the other hand, even when Holliday was pitched to, he struggled to make an impact. "The book on Holliday (in the AL) was pretty simple -- just pound him with fastballs in," said one long-time NL talent evaluator. "They don't really do that as much over here."

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804Sox

#38

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09/11/09 1:15 PM

Just to play devil's advocate, though: the book on Jason Bay is pretty simple too - just throw him breaking balls . . . anywhere . . .

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bighead

#39

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09/11/09 1:37 PM

804Sox wrote:
Just to play devil's advocate, though: the book on Jason Bay is pretty simple too - just throw him breaking balls . . . anywhere . . .

Still leading all AL OFs in HR, RBI and OPS though.

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804Sox

#40

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09/11/09 3:21 PM

bighead wrote:

804Sox wrote:
Just to play devil's advocate, though: the book on Jason Bay is pretty simple too - just throw him breaking balls . . . anywhere . . .

Still leading all AL OFs in HR, RBI and OPS though.

exactly

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Type A Free Agents (the pre-Draft Compensation Thread)

Steve Phillips

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Dan (CT)

Steve Phillips

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