Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (MLBDreams) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:49:25 PST

I'd like Tazawa to stay around with Pawtucket next season for few months and he'll be first starter pitcher to call up ahead of Michael Bowden as depth starter. If Junichi can duplicate his 2009 season numbers then, there's no reason to hold him down in the minor league for too long. We know that they'll invite him to Ft Myers for the Red Sox's ST and compete for #5 starter spot or reliever spots. You realize that the spots are opening as Bill Wagner (agreed by not pick up the option), Paul Byrd (FA), and T. Saito (might decline the option) might be/already depart from the team. Who knows how Tim Wakefield's health will hold up after his surgery? I felt that Tim need to go, too. Too old & 1/2 season pitcher for 4 straight yr. Not worth. I wish the team stop fall in love with his endless yearly $4M option.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (basestealer21) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:16:49 PST

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:

basestealer21 wrote:
I think Tazawa's mastery of his secondary pitches which Francona and Theo both commented on along with his affinity to pitch to contact, I don't see him as a reliever.
Good counter-point, and while I don't disagree with it, I'm not so sure I buy the notion that you can't be a quality reliever as someone who pitches to contact. Certainly, the top-tier relievers (set-up/closers) must have the ability to miss bats. But, I think you'd agree that we wouldn't see Tazawa being brought in with a runner on third and one out, where a strike out is most prevalent. In fact, I think if he can become more of a splitter/slider pitcher, he could produce some decent ground ball rates and become a solid situational/platoon reliever.

Well then that whole...

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (AMarshal2) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 07:57:57 PST

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:
Fair enough.

1. A pitcher that does significant better with runners on base is more suitable to be a reliever because of one simple fact: efficiency. If he's getting hit hard to start an inning and will continuously need to work out of jams, how deep in the game is he going to go? How reliable is he going to be from start to start? IMO, that's why I feel his ability to consistently strand runners is more suitable for the bullpen. Mind you, he's been throwing from the wind-up with nobody on so far. So, we'll see how he progresses in that regard.
2. I could have used any stat to show the significance of the split. I don't really know what else you need.
3. Likewise, there are hundreds of pitchers that can and have maintained that type of split over the course of their career, and the majority of them are relievers.

I...

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:32:54 PST

Fair enough.

1. A pitcher that does significant better with runners on base is more suitable to be a reliever because of one simple fact: efficiency. If he's getting hit hard to start an inning and will continuously need to work out of jams, how deep in the game is he going to go? How reliable is he going to be from start to start? IMO, that's why I feel his ability to consistently strand runners is more suitable for the bullpen. Mind you, he's been throwing from the wind-up with nobody on so far. So, we'll see how he progresses in that regard.
2. I could have used any stat to show the significance of the split. I don't really know what else you need.
3. Likewise, there are hundreds of pitchers that can and have maintained that type of split over the course of their career, and the majority of them are relievers.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (ThSneak) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:16:33 PST

I agree with everything Yimiyahu wrote, but you were the one who brought up WHIP, so I felt like using OBP was justified since they essentially measure the same thing. However, to me everything he said applies equally to both relievers and starters. In both cases you want to be more careful with runners on. You made the case that his WHIP split implied Tazawa would be better as a reliever, but you have failed to convince me that A. Any pitcher could possibly maintain anywhere close to that kind of split over the course of his career or B. that any pitcher with that kind of split would be a better reliever rather than a starter.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (WC Sox Fan) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:07:14 PST

I think most of the points TheGoldenGreek makes about Tazawa would benefit a starter just as much as a reliever with the only exception being how well he pitches with players on base (assuming he isn't a lefty specialist). Obviously, if he continues to put up very positive splits with runners on base, then he would be useful as a mid-inning reliever. (by mid-inning, i mean a guy who enters in the middle of an inning, not middle-inning)

The most important thing for us all to remember is that he has only pitched in the US for one season. Although he is quite advanced, he may still be quite far away from what he will eventually become. If he develops tremendous control his upside could even become a number 2 quality starter in the future. This is unlikely, as few pitchers ever have such good control consistently. But I think we may be a little down on him, since he performed below our expectations at the big league level. But again, this was his first season, give him...

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:04:20 PST

Like Yirmi said, OBP isn't the stat to look at here. Yes, the main object is to keep runners off base. However say, in a one run game, the object of the pitcher is to not allow the run to score. In essence, three walks followed by three strikeouts to preserve the save is a OBP of .500. Conversely, a walk and a home run to blow the lead, followed by three outs is a OBP of .333. Now, which pitcher would you rather have?

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (Yirmiyahu) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:02:38 PST

ThSneak wrote:
If he pitches out of the stretch all the time, shouldn't his numbers be roughly equal with runners on base than not? Both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon actually have worse OBP against for their careers when they have runners on than when the bases are empty, so I think you're making my point for me. Papelbon (.264 vs. .253) Nathan (.285 vs. .276).

It's not that he pitches from the set all of the time. It's that he's never pitched from the windup before, until this year. Thus, he's not as comfortable doing so, which may explain the difference in WHIP. As for Nathan/Papelbon, they both have higher AVG and SLG numbers when pitching with the bases empty. The difference in OBP is due to many more walks (for both players) with men on base. Which makes sense, considering with men on base, they'd be pitching more carefully, more likely to be looking for a strikeout,...

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (ThSneak) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:44:43 PST

TheGoldenGreek33 wrote:
Well, I mean he's pitched in the set his entire life. Does it surprise you that he does better with runners on base?

EDIT: It's certainly not uncommon. For reference, see Papelbon, Jonathan or Nathan, Joe.
EDIT2: I mean, that's what relievers do. If they have low strand rates, they wouldn't have a job.

If he pitches out of the stretch all the time, shouldn't his numbers be roughly equal with runners on base than not? Both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon actually have worse OBP against for their careers when they have runners on than when the bases are empty, so I think you're making my point for me. Papelbon (.264 vs. .253) Nathan (.285 vs. .276).

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:39:18 PST

basestealer21 wrote:
I think Tazawa's mastery of his secondary pitches which Francona and Theo both commented on along with his affinity to pitch to contact, I don't see him as a reliever.

Good counter-point, and while I don't disagree with it, I'm not so sure I buy the notion that you can't be a quality reliever as someone who pitches to contact. Certainly, the top-tier relievers (set-up/closers) must have the ability to miss bats. But, I think you'd agree that we wouldn't see Tazawa being brought in with a runner on third and one out, where a strike out is most prevalent. In fact, I think if he can become more of a splitter/slider pitcher, he could produce some decent ground ball rates and become a solid situational/platoon reliever.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:15:16 PST

ThSneak wrote:
I question the WHIP numbers between pitching with runners on vs. bases empty. Is that the kind of thing that you ever see sustained over someone's career? On the sniff test, it seems like a fluke to me.

Well, I mean he's pitched in the set his entire life. Does it surprise you that he does better with runners on base?

EDIT: It's certainly not uncommon. For reference, see Papelbon, Jonathan or Nathan, Joe.
EDIT2: I mean, that's what relievers do. If they have low strand rates, they wouldn't have a job.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (basestealer21) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:59:18 PST

I think Tazawa's mastery of his secondary pitches which Francona and Theo both commented on along with his affinity to pitch to contact, I don't see him as a reliever. However, take a look at the game Bowden pitched out of the bullpen the game Lester got hurt. He showed flashes of being a pretty good 7th/long guy. Agree?

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (ThSneak) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:33:07 PST

I question the WHIP numbers between pitching with runners on vs. bases empty. Is that the kind of thing that you ever see sustained over someone's career? On the sniff test, it seems like a fluke to me.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (Lightning Show) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:38 PST

I would love to see Tazawa take on the Justin Masterson role of Spot Starter/Long Relief role. When Masterson was pitching well in that role I thought it took a lot of pressure off the rest of the staff, I know he doesn't have the sinker that Masterson had but I think his stuff would fit well there.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (Sibby Sisti) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:31:57 PST

With Okajima, and hopefully, a resurgence of Ramirez and Delcarmen, the team seems set at the 7th. Tazawa has been a starter since the industrial league in Japan. It is far too soon to monkey with his psyche.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (DCRi) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:02:02 PST

I agree that if Tazawa has a future in the major leagues it most probably is as a reliever. I have not been as enthusiastic about him as many others on the board and I do not think he will be a starter for the Sox. I also think that Bowden's future may be in the bullpen for many of the same reasons why Tazawa may wind up there.

I think there are going to be some significant changes in the bullpen in the off-season and there will be some opportunities there for both Tazawa and Bowden. The reason I think there will be changes in the bullpen is that to make any significant trades the Sox are going to have to part with some major league talent, and the bullpen is the best source of players who are not injured, aging, or key components of the future.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (Bosoxwest) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 09:46:33 PST

Good thought. Channeling CEM, if he can locate 3 pitches even with the FB working at 89-90 IMO he is a viable BOTR starter, which at this point the team may well end up needing more than a 7th inning guy. We've seen firsthand that location is more important than velocity in recent weeks (not to mention that it's a decent idea to mix pitches and speeds). His ability to keep the ball in the park and hold runners with a (hopefully) strong offense behind him should make him pretty serviceable in the rotation. He appears to have good makeup and pitchability.

Certainly he may end up in the bullpen, but of the two, I would guess Bowden looks like the first candidate to see if his stuff plays up in a one-inning role, no? His starts have been less impressive at both levels (not to hijack; mods can determine if germaine).

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (Nexus) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 09:00:45 PST

You wonder how long his 5'11" and 180lb. frame will hold up over time as a starter. Even a freakish athlete like Lincecum lost nearly 2 ticks on his fastball this year.

Edit: spelling

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (raftsox) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 08:06:59 PST

I agree with CEM completely and add one thing. We've seen (in video) that he can throw 94, but we didn't see anything close to that this season. *If* he can regain that velocity and possibly improve upon it (by pitching from the wind-up) then he could become a legitimate #3 starter. It's worth letting him work for the whole season in the minors with maybe a spot start here or there.

Re: Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 08:03:59 PST

Second disclaimer: Nor do I think he should be given up on as a starting pitcher.

Agreed with what you guys have said, though.

Junichi Tazawa: Starter or Reliever?

feeds@kickapps.com (TheGoldenGreek33) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:03:27 PST

Disclaimer: In no way has his results with Boston influenced my preference of what you're about to read.

With that said, I'm going to keep this short because I hate reading long posts and so do you.

Looking at 2010 and beyond, I believe Tazawa could evolve into a quality 7th inning man. Why?

1) He prefers pitching from the set.
2) He's lightning quick to home plate (1.3s), which may or may not help our noodle-armed catchers.
3) He pitches significantly better with men on than with no one on (0.79 WHIP v. 1.30 WHIP)*
4) He doesn't allow many home runs (0.59 HR/9)*
5) His stuff plays up against lefties (11.4 LD% v. LHH, 14.7 LD% v. RHH)*
6) His plus off-speed offerings would provide a great bridge to Bard/Paps, who rely on the heat (as we know all too well with the latter).

*Cumulative mL rates between Portland and Pawtucket

If you disagree, why? And what do you think Tazawa needs to...